The Chiefs were not in a position to demand a lot for the Hall of Fame-bound Gonzalez. But Schatz thinks the Chiefs missed a chance to improve their chances of securing an impact player in the 2009 draft. "Any draft picks that can help them move up to get the best quarterback in next year's draft is a draft pick they need," Schatz says.

Analysts who study player performance are wary of tight ends -- the good ones tend not to age well. Schatz predicted during the 2006 season that Gonzalez would become one the game's most overpaid players. The Chiefs eventually signed Gonzalez to a deal worth $17 million in guaranteed money.

Gonzalez was terrific in 2007, accumulating 1,172 in receiving yards. Shatz says Gonazalez is "pretty amazing" in the way he's been able to withstand his age. "That being said, the odds that he will still be good in two years are small," he says. Which is why the Chiefs, who don't figure to contend until 2010, should have dealt him.

Schatz doesn't fault Gonzalez for re-signing with the team after the 2006 season, a year the Chiefs squeaked into the playoffs. "There was no reason for him to step back from a playoff season and say, 'We're are screwed next year. I've got to get out of here.' "

That said, the 2007 issue of Pro Football Prospectus, of which Schatz is lead author, predicated that the Chiefs would struggle on account of Larry Johnson's brutal workload in 2006 and the retirements along the offensive line.

Schatz says he doesn't expect players to mull concepts like the Curse of 370, which states that running backs who get a lot of carries tend to break down the following season. Their representatives are another matter, however.

"Agents should read my stuff so that they can tell their players when their teams are probably headed downhill," Schatz says.