Kansas City News Blog

Predicting which college quarterbacks will make great NFL quarterbacks is nearly impossible. For every Peyton Manning there are more Ryan Leafs. The New Yorker's Malcolm Gladwell wrote about "the quarterback problem" in his December 15 piece, "Most Likely to Succeed" and used University of Missouri quarterback Chase Daniel as his case study question mark.

"There are certain jobs where almost nothing you can learn about candidates before they start predicts how they'll do once they're hired," Gladwell wrote. "So how do we know whom to choose in cases like that?"

Gladwell's bigger picture question wasn't about football but about teaching -- a profession with an equally troubling "quarterback problem."

But let's stick with Daniel. No one's certain whether he'll be a Manning or a Leaf. "The problem with picking quarterbacks is that Chase Daniel's performance can't be predicted," Gladwell wrote. "The job he's being groomed for is so particular and specialized that there is no way to know who will succeed at it and who won't."

One more thing: If the Chiefs pass on drafting Daniel, we may now know why. Gladwell wrote of the scene in the press box in which "a scout for the Kansas City Chiefs looked crestfallen" after Daniel threw an interception in a loss to Oklahoma State. Just remember that when you're booing on draft day. -- Justin Kendall